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Kelowna housing starts are up from a year ago.  (Photo: Flickr user, tamaki)
Kelowna housing starts are up from a year ago. (Photo: Flickr user, tamaki)

Thomson report

Edited by John Thomson - Story: 53369
Mar 18, 2010 / 5:00 am

The Kelowna area new home construction market began in 2010 on a positive note. Housing starts totaled 161 homes, up from 17 homes a year ago.

Rental construction boosted January housing starts. Construction began on two rental apartment projects totaling 111 units. Last year’s fourth quarter upswing in detached home construction carried over into 2010.

Detached home starts were more than double the level recorded in January 2009. Strong competition from a well supplied existing home market and high inventories of new, completed and unoccupied units has constrained apartment condominium construction.

Based on the current statistics released by the Okanagan Mainline Real Estate Board, the housing market in the Central Okanagan continues to build stability and momentum.

Single family home sales are up 43% over the same month last year (123/86 sales) and up 81% for the year to date totals (257/142). Average days on the market showed a substantial drop to 68 days as the market tightened in the onset of 2010.

Affordability continues to drive the market and the spring offerings should continue to see strong demand for affordable single family homes not only by first time buyers - but young families looking to move up. Expect to see a rise in both inventory and demand this spring and buyers taking advantage of low interest rates and incentives.

Single family home inventory is currently sitting at 1131 homes for sale indicating a 10 month absorption period. Average price is up 3% over last year at $462,457 (2010) compared to $447,819 experienced in February 2009. The median price is up 7% during for those same time frames $429,000 (2010) $400,000 (2009).

The condo market is beginning to show signs of improvement with an increase of nearly 90% in sales over February of last year (57/30), yet showing more stability compared with the previous 3 months of November (63), December (56) and January (49). Absorption rate currently sits at just over 17 months and condos typically taking approximately 120 days to sell. Average price of a condo in February was $255,163 - an increase of 9% over February of 2009 ($234,243) and median price is up 16.5% (243,500/$209,000).

Watch for interest rates and economic recovery to see how the balance of 2010 unfolds.

Residential Sales By Price – Year to date

Price Range 2010 2009

$0 to $200,000 2 1

$200,001 to $240,000 4 3

$240,001 to $280,000 6 4

$280,001 to $320,000 7 11

$320,001 to $360,000 31 24

$360,001 to $400,000 39 26

$400,001 to $440,000 42 22

$440,001 to $480,000 29 14

$480,001 to $520,000 23 13

$520,001 to $560,000 23 5

$560,001 to $600,000 9 5

$600,001 to $999,999 40 11

$1 Million and over 2 1


A Few More Real Estate Stats

Average House Price in Feb. 2010 $ 462,457
House Price in Feb. 2010 $ 429,000

Number of houses listed last month: 473

Number of lakeshore homes sold last month: 2

Average Mobile Home Price: $ 111,075

Dollar value of sales in Feb. 2010 $ 114,291,640

Dollar value of sales in Feb. 2010 $ 58,886,840

The preceding article represents the best of what has recently come across John's desk. Highlighted items may include extensively unattributed passages provide by the subject of the article and readers should treat such feature and benefit claims accordingly.






Thomson report

Edited by John Thomson - Story: 53342
Mar 17, 2010 / 5:00 am

In February a popular online investment company, Genius Funds, was banned by the British Columbia Securities Commission to trade in any securities in B.C. The executive director of the BCSC issued a temporary order against the company. The order also banned Genius Funds from engaging in any investor relation’s activities in the province.

The order came after BCSC staff was alerted that a Vernon-area individual had recently wired $25,000 to the company.

According to the BCSC notice, “Genius Funds is making misrepresentations to investors because it offers a rate of return that is impossible to earn consistently through legal means.”

As is known, Genius Funds offers one investment fund that makes payments of up to 1.9 per cent daily, and a second fund that makes payments of up to nine per cent weekly. Today a lot of people make money online with Genius Funds. In addition, the notice says Genius Funds states that it offers the Genius High-Yield Deposit Account that earns depositors interest between 14 per cent and 25 per cent monthly.

The notice also reported that in fact, “Genius Funds is not registered to participate in B.C.’s securities industry. The notice alleges that Genius Funds has breached, and continues to breach, securities laws by carrying out unregistered activity in the province.”

Meantime these days, users of the online investment project have reported that they could not access the website of Genius Funds and some reported they could not withdraw their funds to their e-currency accounts.

One user posted his message on the online forum of the HYIP monitor website Hyipexplorer.com:

"I had a problem with my account and I've emailed support more than 3 days ago. Until now I have not got any reply from them. I used Live Chat and the support representative said it takes around 24 hours to 48 hours for support to reply. I've waited until now and still I have got no reply from them. Live chat repeatedly asked me to not worry and that a reply should be imminent. Now when I try to access the site it fails to load. Does anyone know what is going on and whether if your emails to support are answered? I'm trying to sell my EMGF shares and because I forgot my TPIN my account got blocked. That is the problem I emailed to support. I've waited well over 150 days for my shares to mature and now since support won't answer me and the site being unreachable, I'm beginning to wonder if I'm ever going to withdraw my funds.

Five days now still pending on my payout, 400USD. What is the real problem, GF? What happened with GF? Is it SCAM now?

Could these events be related to each other? Have Genius Funds turned into a scam project after all?"

This remains unclear because HYIP monitors continue to rate Genius Funds as the top investment online project with many users keeping on to invest their e-currencies in it. It is still considered as paying.

On the other hand one member on the Hyip.com forum disputes the HYIP monitor’s opinion as the final and most objective instance: “Put it this way, any program that depends on monitors alone (resources comes from people) is probably 'Ponzi' (this is a speculative statement)...programs that don't are probably NOT. They will perform despite what monitors had to say because they have their own compliance standards to follow as required by their legal jurisdiction. EU base offshore financial institutions are damn strict with their financial regulations.”

Many advocates and fans of the company allege that problems with the withdrawals are just related to maintenance problems and in fact online investors do receive their funds after these glitches on the website.

One such user wrote: “For Christ sake people...if you don’t have any proof than don’t say that it is a scam! I have been waiting for my wire transfer withdrawal for a couple of weeks and I had good support over email and it looks like they have solved the problem now. If you have any sense at all then you should realize that complaining in this room won't solve your problems! In contrary! You would just undermine faith in a company that has always paid! So think twice before accusing them of being a false company!”

Interestingly, Genius Funds does not offer wire transfers as a withdrawal option.

Ecommerce-Journal has sent its questions to the administration of Genius Funds but the company failed to respond and provide any explanations to what is really happening at once.

Later Ecommerce-Journal received this response from Genius Funds:

Dear Ecommerce Journal,

Due to technical difficulties experienced by our servers over the past two weeks, our compliance department decided to cancel all pending payments and have clients resubmit them.

As a result, the accounting department is overloaded processing payments for the past week and some of our investors are experiencing delays with current transfers. We will get on track with all the withdrawals as soon as possible.


We’ll see. Be careful out there.

The preceding article represents the best of what has recently come across John's desk. Highlighted items may include extensively unattributed passages provide by the subject of the article and readers should treat such feature and benefit claims accordingly.



Customers are going to see things like milk, bread, butter and eggs reduced in price.  (Photo: Flickr user, markjms)
Customers are going to see things like milk, bread, butter and eggs reduced in price. (Photo: Flickr user, markjms)

Thomson report

by John Thomson - Story: 53320
Mar 16, 2010 / 5:00 am

I have been writing about this for the past number of months as Walmart Canada started to open their chain of Supercenters and that there would be a food price fight in our backyard because the battle was on for the Canadian retail customer looking for a bargain.

That was further established last week as the U.S. chain announced that they were cutting prices on 10,000 items throughout their stores this month and that would effect every department in the giant stores. This is a Western Canadian promotion from Manitoba to BC. Customers are going to see things like milk, bread, butter and eggs reduced in price and that isn’t easy in Canada because of the control that their marketing board has on the industry. It is the first thing you notice when you buy groceries in the U.S. that the price of these particular products is up to half as much as we pay in Canada everyday.

Now we must see what the major players in this country do to counteract the Walmart challenge for more customers in their stores. We have some excellent merchants in the retail grocery business in Canada and the chains like Real Canadian Superstore, Safeway, IGA, Sobeys and the BC champion, Save-On-Foods.

Of course it would be wrong not to include Costco in the mix and how they will handle the situation will be interesting. The record shows that it is a goods player in the price game because of their record over the years and the store like the one in Kelowna takes about $2 million a week out of the market every week. It is a force to be reckoned with because the chain is so nimble in their moves in this awfully competitive market. It won’t be advertising its changes but their shoppers will know and the continued new brands they introduce to the marketplace will get stronger. The wholesale chain is just good at what they do and they do it well.

Walmart’s move in western Canada is significant because the company does business right across the country but this is where they have chosen to battle it out. Who is the winner? You are, the consumer if you shop at all stores and take advantage of the deals being offered. Not everyone will do that.

The question is: What will Walmart's competitors, such as Loblaws, do?

Probably not much, said Bill Chisholm, a retail analyst with MacDougall, MacDougall and MacTier in Toronto.

"It'll be interesting to see how the rest of them will react," Chisholm said.

"But I suspect no one will under price Walmart."

The analyst said the reason is what economists call economies of scale: Because of the sheer amount of goods it sells, Walmart can afford price cuts that could be difficult for competitors, such as Loblaw's Real Canadian Superstore division, to match.

But still, Walmart's greater presence is helping keep prices low.

"I would think (competitors' prices) will stay relatively close, but they will not undercut (Walmart)," Chisholm said.

The retail giant announced Friday it is cutting prices on more than 10,000 items in all departments in March, including food, as it's trying to swallow a greater part of the western Canadian market.

The cuts are confined to stores from Manitoba to B.C., and include price reductions of such staples as milk, bread, eggs and butter, as well as toilet paper.

"We are committed to being a price leader in every area of our business," Duncan Mac Naughton, Walmart's chief merchandising officer, said in releasing the new prices Friday.

As we have been writing about for months the aggressive expansion of the U.S. chain into the western market always meant competition that would in the end benefit the customer.


Mexico’s new passport rules came into effect this month for USA and Canada visitors.  (Photo: Flickr user, xomiele)
Mexico’s new passport rules came into effect this month for USA and Canada visitors. (Photo: Flickr user, xomiele)

Rumours and things

by John Thomson - Story: 53200
Mar 11, 2010 / 5:00 am

By all accounts, February was a brutal month for CNN. The cable news network finished in fifth place for both total day and prime time for the month and its prime time hosts hit new ratings lows.

Rumors swirled this week that CBS News was courting Anderson Cooper. If this is true, the anchor's February ratings could provide CBS with some leverage in salary negotiations as "AC360" had its worst month ever. Compared to a year ago, Cooper's ratings are down 59% and a whopping 62% in the 25-54 demographic.

Cooper's prime time partners didn't fare any better. Campbell Brown was down 50% in total viewers from last year and Larry King dropped 55%. According to TVNewser, "Larry King Live" saw its lowest number of total viewers in at least 13 years.
--------------------

Mac's Convenience Stores and Seattle's Best Coffee LLC, part of Starbucks Corporation, have entered into an agreement for Mac's to exclusively brew Seattle's Best Coffee(R) in Ontario in the convenience store channel. This agreement expands the more than 14-year relationship between the brands and leverages each company's world-class capabilities with the aim of giving Mac's customers a great cup of coffee. As part of this agreement, Mac's will expand its offering of Seattle's Best Coffee(R) from its current 290 convenience stores across four provinces in Western Canada to another 600 locations across Ontario.

Seattle's Best Coffee first started roasting coffee back in 1970, and today is one of the most recognized specialty coffee brands in North America.

--------------------

Mexico’s new passport rules came into effect this month for USA and Canada visitors and as I look at the press release and I can’t see anything that will affect Canadian travel. We all travel with passports because it is the only way to get back into this country and that is one of the new rules is that you have to have a passport to get into Mexico in the first place.

Exempt from the new rule are visitors to border regions who remain in the country for less than 72 hours or cruise ship passengers who briefly disembark will not be required to present a passport.

--------------------

Tim Hortons has announced expansion plans for both sides of the border. There will be nine hundred new stores in Canada and 300 in the U.S. in a three year plan for the Canadian company. Sixty of the U.S. stores will be a new upscale model featuring enhanced finishing touches, fireplaces, lighting and seating areas.

The company has 563 stores south of the border now. In Canada 3,600 stores. Most of the new stores will be in Western Canada and Quebec. The product line will be broadened somewhat but they are not telling us what that means at the moment. It was announced a few months ago that Tim Hortons U.S. was going into a deal with the Cold Stone Creamery people for dual stores in the American market and that concept is also being brought to Canada in at least sixty stores to begin with I understand. That’s all I need, donuts and ice cream in the same location. My dream has come true!


Laura Secord is back as Nutriat Inc.  (Photo:  Flickr user, 17748937)
Laura Secord is back as Nutriat Inc. (Photo: Flickr user, 17748937)

Here and there

by John Thomson - Story: 53178
Mar 10, 2010 / 5:00 am

Every time you turn around today another retailer has added food items as a new profit center to their retail mix. Every other service station, Shopper’s Drug Mart and Canadian Tire came to mind first although both The Bay and Sears are talking groceries as well. I believe The Bay has already started in markets in eastern Canada.

Shopper’s seems to be the most successful in this move with their food section. The company has decided to create their own house brands like they have done so well with in the drug stores.

Then along comes Walmart to make a statement about the future plans it has for Canada and these plans call for up to forty new or remodelled stores. These will all be super-centers. This probably means a super-center for Penticton this year?

The regular supermarkets like Real Canadian Superstore, Save-On-Foods, Safeway, and IGA have done very well with their house brands for the last few years and the consumer has benefited because of the lower prices for the unadvertised and the quality of the products that are being produced.

Walmart is one of the few retailers in the expansion mode these days although we are still scheduled for a new Real Canadian Superstore in West Kelowna over the next year. The American company Walmart said it will invest $500 million in Canada for expansion creating 6,500 jobs in construction and staff.

As a group Canadian retailers have emerged from the slow down stronger than expected by focusing on cost cutting and sales. There were predictions by all the experts in 2008 that retail was going to suffer during the 2009 recession and that turned out to not be the case. Our retailers have a good reputation for the management of their firms and it has paid off again.

Out of the fray there is Costco, the wholesale club we like to think is exclusive, that card we pay for takes us behind the velvet ropes. But all the changes taking place in the retail world have affected Costco as well because they can only lower their price so far. Costco is a different shopping experience. It is a planned trip. People like to shop at Costco and get the bargains and then tell everyone how smart they were in doing so.

--------------------

I always watch and listen to what Warren Buffet has to say. The billionaire investor sees a big payoff when the U.S. housing market at last recovers in 2011. Which, if he is right is good news for the lumber industry in this country. The so called Oracle of Omaha and head of Berkshire Hathaway gave a wide ranging view of the economy and a more upbeat out than we have seen in months.

I realize that the recession has hit hard with jobs all over both our countries but it’s hard to tell when you are out there in traffic, in a waiting line or when you go out to eat or go shopping.

-------------------

We might as well get ready because we are going to be paying more for gasoline for our cars this summer even though market forces say we shouldn’t be. Is there any logic to such a production? You have paid more at the pumps in twenty-four of the last twenty-six years in April. The demands in China are raising the prices world wide.

All refineries according to what I have read are producing about eighty per cent capacity now and there is no real big demand for gasoline on the home front.

Supply here is very good with inventories on both sides of the border about what the industry calls the five year average. Does all this make sense? No. But does the price of gas ever make sense?

Canada is the No. 1 supplier of imported oil to the U.S.

Gasoline prices are expected to increase along with demand as the weather warms and drivers do more traveling.

Oil prices have absolutely nothing to do with the events in the real world.

--------------------

It was good news to hear that Laura Secord, the legendary Canadian chocolate maker, was back in Canadian hands as Nutriat Inc. a Quebec candy maker, who was already supplying to the almost 100-year-old chain. When the Chicago company Archibald Candy Corp. took over the famous chain it became almost a disaster and saving the 127 store chain was important. There were 160 stores at one time. We used to have at least two Laura Secord stores in the valley just a few years ago and that could have been three outlets. Someone made great ice cream for those stores.


The big winner at the 2010 Winter games is the red mittens.  (Photo: Flickr user, sagamiono)
The big winner at the 2010 Winter games is the red mittens. (Photo: Flickr user, sagamiono)

Here and there

by John Thomson - Story: 53154
Mar 9, 2010 / 5:00 am

What does this mean to the film industry in B.C. with Hollywood mounting an advertising campaign to their film crews to come on home? It is expected to start in April and the idea is to get those film shoots back in California as quickly as they can. There are new incentives to bring them back because California faced a drop of 31 per cent last year in local production. The state is down sixty per cent since 2003 in local film projects. With many locations in Canada vying for productions there is a lot of money on the table form Ontario, Manitoba, Alberta and of course here in B.C. The Vancouver studio complex is a huge money draw for the province. Every aspect of the film industry is represented in Vancouver and the dollars that can be spent are important to the province. The battle lines seem to be drawn again but this time California is spending dollars to make something happen if they can.
--------------------

  • The surprising interest in the U.S. for curling has become unbelievable with headline stories in the news media. Papers like the Los Angeles Times and The N.Y. Post ran stories and pictures. Canadian skip Cheryl Bernard of Calgary has become the darling of the media as well. She is a hot chick south of the border and the Americans have found a new sport attraction and they are fascinated by it.

  • NBC has come through with a lot of action on one of their four channels covering the games. The US hockey team beats Canada in that first round the Los Angeles Times runs a front page story on curling. A new cult favourite.

  • It looks like the big winner in the 2010 Winter Games is the red mittens from The Bay with the number approaching over 3.5 million pairs being sold. There should be a lot of money in the pot for the Canadian athletes when this is all over. It was an afterthought that the gloves became a part of the games at all. The item was created after the Bay officials, who did all of the clothing for the games, decided that the white gloves they had chosen for the torch bearers didn’t work and that something was needed to brighten things up and the red glove idea was born. They were the last item ordered and when the first shipment of 300,000 arrived they were sold within seven days. The officials knew they had a winner. The best selling item in the clothing line was the fleece hoodie.

  • South Korea’s Kim Yu-Na the figure skater under the tutelage of Canada’s Brian Orser already earned an estimated $9 million a year in sponsorship dollars before coming into this year’s games. Now what will the number be?

  • The numbers for the big game between Canada and USA for the broadcast were 16.6 viewers in Canada and in the U.S A. 27.6 were tuned in. When Sidney Crosby scored the overtime winner 80 cent of Canada was watching TV. At the peak between 2:30 and 3 pm with the game tied 34.8 million people in the U.S. were watching.

  • CTV won every night during the games with their coverage. The hockey produced the largest TV audience in Canadian history.

  • NBC did a super job in promoting Canada to the world with their broadcast coverage and their in special reports look at Canada as a place to visit. It was well done. We watched the entire games on NBC because we were south and after you sit back and realize you’re visiting and their teams come first I can’t complain about the coverage. Bob Costas has always been one of my favourite broadcasters anyway.

  • I have always had a curiosity where all the money goes that comes into the till during the Olympic Games. The international body IOC is said to take 12.75 per cent of the TV rights and 20 per cent of the sponsorship money. This the golden egg for the IOC and they give up nothing. The amazing numbers generated for IOC is overwhelming and all goes to their headquarters in Europe. The bills we paid for executives etc. were probably staggering and it is not something we will ever probably learn the true numbers for.

  • It may be a bit of a stretch but what the hell, Canadian athletes owned the podium with their gold medal wins. The IOC when they put up their rankings after the game should have historically done so by the gold medals. Canada spent $117 million on its elite athletes.

  • Where have they gone? The gloves, the stick and the puck from the winning goal in the U.S.A./Canada game is missing as I write. After scoring the goal to win the gold medal Sydney Crosby threw them off and was surrounded by his players and nobody was thinking at that time about history. Everything went into the air after the overtime goal and the 3-2 win. Now the Hockey Hall of Fame wants to put them on display and no one seems to know where they are.

  • Apparently, a Canadian gold medal really brought out the gold cards with electronic transactions spiking up 117 per cent after Alex Bilodeau's big win.

    In Blaine WA, just south of the Peace Arch, a huge banner was strung across their main street that read “2010 Olympic Visitors Welcome to Blaine where America begins.”


  • Miracle Fruit is a plant native to West Africa.  (Photo:  mymiracleberry website)
    Miracle Fruit is a plant native to West Africa. (Photo: mymiracleberry website)

    Here and there

    by John Thomson - Story: 53029
    Mar 3, 2010 / 5:00 am

    Maybe you've heard about the fabulous miracle fruit, a sort of West African berry that temporarily transforms everything you eat afterward into a sweet treat: hot peppers, lemons, rhubarb, you name it. Now you can buy miracle fruit in Canada -- and in tablet form.

    Mberry Miracle Fruit Tablets contain zero calories and cost about $16 for a 10-tablet package. Order online at (mymiracleberry.com).

    Each package comes with a best-before date, so don't keep them too long. Or order the fresh, real deal: five for $20, plus $20 shipping and handling.

    Miracle Fruit (Synsepalum dulcificum), sometimes known as the Miracle Berry, is a plant native to West Africa. The berry has a mildly sweet flavor however, the fruit is treasured not for its own taste, but for the fruit’s unique effect on the taste buds.

    Miracle Fruit contains a lipoprotein called miraculin, which binds to the tongue’s taste buds when the fruit is consumed. Miraculin acts as a sweetness inducer when it comes in contact with acids, causing bitter and sour foods to taste sweet, temporarily. This effect usually lasts between 30 minutes and 2 hours.

    --------------------

    Today high blood pressure is the leading cause of death in the world. It’s estimated that 25% of North Americans have hypertension. Studies show that one in two Canadians over age 65 is a carrier. South of the border a recent study said that at age 75, nine out of ten people have high blood pressure. If hypertension is present, you and I have three times the risk of dying from a heart attack or a stroke.

    This is all about my continuing battle with salt and the products that we buy from the shelf or eat in our favorite restaurant. We consume too much salt.

    Tim Horton’s chicken noodle soup has 880 mg of salt, McDonald’s quarter pounder with cheese 1,100 mg. Swiss Chalet Chicken Pot Pie 1,220, a ham and cheese sandwich with mustard 2,340 and a Reuben sand 3,270. I do like Reuben sandwiches.

    To decrease our salt intake we must learn how to read labels. Be a smart consumer. Shopping is a job, not a run and grab operation like so many of us do today buying the brand we saw advertised on TV.

    You have to know the salt numbers. A recent report on heart attacks pointed directly at the young people today and the way they eat on the run. They don’t give a moment’s thought to the salt intake. Why would they, they like the taste. What’s salt got to do with eating healthy?

    We have so much to learn.





    About The Author...

    John Thomson is the Okanagan's pre-eminent business columnist writing his column, Rumours and Things, for over 19 years. Plugged in to the valley's who's who, John keeps his readers coming back for more with his straight talk and optimistic perspective on where we are headed next.

    When John is not writing his column, he runs an eleven year old think tank called the Executive Roundtable and holds his popular "Thomson Presents" quarterly business speaker seminars.

    Have a comment, question, or tip for John? Email John at:

    john.thomson@castanet.net

    or send him a fax at 764-8255.






    The views expressed are strictly those of the author and not necessarily those of Castanet. Castanet presents its columns "as is" and does not warrant the contents.



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